Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-130) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- Dawson Knox has posted a staggering 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Dawson Knox has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the NFL (80.3%) versus TEs since the start of last season (80.3%).
Cons
- The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
- Dawson Knox’s 21.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 27.4.
- Dawson Knox’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.5% to 64.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
