Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- The model projects David Njoku to notch 4.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, surrendering 6.91 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore’s group of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
