Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-113).

Pros

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
The projections expect Davante Adams to earn 11.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
As it relates to air yards, Davante Adams grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 127.0 per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
The model projects Davante Adams to be a less important option in his offense’s passing offense in this game (33.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (40.2% in games he has played).
Davante Adams’s talent in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.95 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards