Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.2% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
When it comes to air yards, Dallas Goedert grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 33.0 per game.
The Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.2% to 71.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards