Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.2% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
- When it comes to air yards, Dallas Goedert grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 33.0 per game.
- The Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- Dallas Goedert’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.2% to 71.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
