Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-113) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to garner 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in football (51.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards