Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
- The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to notch 4.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 11.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
- The Bengals pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (78.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (78.6%).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling a mere 3.87 yards-per-target compared to a 8.98 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
