Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may go down.
The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to notch 4.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 11.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
The Bengals pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (78.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (78.6%).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling a mere 3.87 yards-per-target compared to a 8.98 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards