Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Cade Otton has run a route on 65.7% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Cade Otton has been among the worst tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
- The Saints defense has surrendered the fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Saints pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.7%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (56.7%).
- Saints defensive tackles profile as the 6th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
