Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-114) after it opened @ 235.5 (-114).

Pros

Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 64.7%.
Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.34 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football against the Bears defense since the start of last season (73.0%).
The Bears pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.65 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Broncos to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Russell Wilson to attempt 30.6 passes this week, on average: the 4th-fewest of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards