Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jets vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 272.5 (-110) after it opened @ 275.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
- The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 316.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
- The Jets defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Patrick Mahomes’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 63.4%.
- Patrick Mahomes’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, compiling just 7.00 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 figure last season.
- The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.88 yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
