Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Our trusted projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
Cons
- The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 60.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards
279
Passing Yards
