Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-114/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-122) after it opened @ 201.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Lamar Jackson’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.9% to 73.7%.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 7.31 yards-per-target while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.5 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the league.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the fewest yards in the league (just 192.0 per game) against the Browns defense since the start of last season.
- Since the start of last season, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has given up a puny 65.7% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
