Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 281.5 (+100) after it opened @ 284.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may slide.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
- Justin Herbert has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 287.0 yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Las Vegas’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
