Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 234.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
The Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts’s passing efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 6.60 yards-per-target vs a 7.62 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards