Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+106) after it opened @ 217.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Baker Mayfield has attempted a mere 15.4 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 5th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the worst QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 90.0 yards per game while ranking in the 5th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 192.0 per game) versus the Saints defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest rate in the league against the Saints defense since the start of last season (63.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
