Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aidan O'Connell from EV Insight

Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards

Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-110).

Pros

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles’s unit has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
The Chargers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards