NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles’s unit has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
- The Chargers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
