Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accumulate 18.1 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.6% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has grinded out 69.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
Travis Etienne’s rushing effectiveness (5.17 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (95th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards