Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accumulate 18.1 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.6% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has grinded out 69.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s rushing effectiveness (5.17 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (95th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards
88
Rushing Yards
