NFL

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November 15, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The model projects Joe Mixon to notch 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this year (79.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
With an outstanding total of 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), Joe Mixon places as one of the top pure runners in football this year.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 31.4% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap.
The Cincinnati offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football last year at opening holes for rushers.
This year, the strong Baltimore Ravens run defense has conceded a paltry 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 9th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards