Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The model projects Joe Mixon to notch 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this year (79.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
- With an outstanding total of 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), Joe Mixon places as one of the top pure runners in football this year.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 31.4% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap.
- The Cincinnati offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football last year at opening holes for rushers.
- This year, the strong Baltimore Ravens run defense has conceded a paltry 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 9th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
