Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).

Pros

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tony Pollard has picked up 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
The New York Giants defense has produced the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding 5.37 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
94
Rushing Yards