Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to garner 18.3 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has rushed for significantly more yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).

Cons

The Giants are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards