Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to earn 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Raheem Mostert has garnered 52.2% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Raheem Mostert has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (75th percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 5.51 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
