Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to earn 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Raheem Mostert has garnered 52.2% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Raheem Mostert has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (75th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 5.51 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards