Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-137) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Seahawks are an enormous 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.3% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in football (just 78 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
