Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-131) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Javonte Williams has been among the top RBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 88th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.79 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
