Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-122) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to notch 14.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- J.K. Dobbins has received 44.2% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- J.K. Dobbins has picked up 63.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (87th percentile).
- J.K. Dobbins’s ground efficiency (5.48 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 100 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
