Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Deon Jackson from EV Insight

Deon JacksonRushing Yards

Right now, Deon Jackson’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-113).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to garner 11.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (38.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.6% in games he has played).

Cons

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards