Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 17.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Opposing teams have run for the most yards in the NFL (153 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- Christian McCaffrey has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for 71.5% of snaps compared to just 60.0% last year.
- Christian McCaffrey has been among the worst RBs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.61 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 11th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
