Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).

Pros

The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 17.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have run for the most yards in the NFL (153 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

Christian McCaffrey has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this year, staying in the game for 71.5% of snaps compared to just 60.0% last year.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the worst RBs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.61 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 11th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards