Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (+100) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 14.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- Austin Ekeler has received 58.3% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has grinded out 58.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
