Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-111/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-111) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Cons

The Ravens are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards