Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (148.0) to WRs this year.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Tyreek Hill’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 70.7%.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
