Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (148.0) to WRs this year.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tyreek Hill’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 70.7%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards