Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Giants
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
- The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (77%) vs. TEs this year (77.0%).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
- T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging just 5.22 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last year.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
