Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Stefon Diggs has posted many more receiving yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

Cons

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, conceding 7.64 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
83
Receiving Yards