Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to total 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Michael Pittman has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 6.97 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards