Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to total 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Michael Pittman has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 6.97 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
