Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-113/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-113) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 7.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has accumulated a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among tight ends.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Ravens are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a less important option in his offense’s passing attack this week (24.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.9% in games he has played).
- Mark Andrews has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in just 65.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 17th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
