Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson from EV Insight

Kylen GransonReceiving Yards

Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-110).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Kylen Granson has earned a colossal 8.4% of his offense’s air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among tight ends.
Kylen Granson has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a terrific 77.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 81st percentile.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.48 seconds per play.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards