Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-139) after it opened @ 90.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Justin Jefferson has put up a lot more receiving yards per game (102.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

Cons

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 67.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (64.2%) versus WRs this year (64.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
114
Receiving Yards