WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-117) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.6% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- Ja’Marr Chase has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (78.0).
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (158.0) versus wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Bengals are a heavy 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Ja’Marr Chase has put up quite a few less air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a mere 8.84 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
