Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-114) after it opened @ 26.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to total 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
- Irv Smith has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Irv Smith has accounted for a whopping 9.7% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Irv Smith Jr. has been among the least effective receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.82 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 11th percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (65.2%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
