Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-140/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-140) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle has run a route on 89.4% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.24 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- George Kittle has been among the best TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- George Kittle has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
- George Kittle has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
