Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-120) after it opened @ 68.5 (-120).
Pros
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the most receiving yards per game in the league (148.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching just 61.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile among wide receivers
- Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
