Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-109/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-120) after it opened @ 15.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Durham Smythe has been among the worst pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while checking in at the 13th percentile among TEs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards