Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-120) after it opened @ 15.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Durham Smythe has been among the worst pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while checking in at the 13th percentile among TEs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
