Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (+110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.2% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to garner 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has put up a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 61.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 20th percentile among WRs
Diontae Johnson has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.73 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 4th percentile among WRs
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards