Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 7.67 rate last year.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Deebo Samuel has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel’s 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards