Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Cons

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
Dawson Knox has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Dawson Knox has posted many fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards