Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
- Dawson Knox has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- Dawson Knox has posted many fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
