Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-114/-114).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this year (94.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
Christian Kirk has put up quite a few less air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.8%.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 122.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, allowing 7.63 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards