Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- Chris Godwin has compiled far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has compiled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (71.0) this season than he did last season (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.6% to 74.6%.
- Chris Godwin’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling just 7.82 yards-per-target compared to a 9.83 rate last year.
- Chris Godwin’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 4.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
