Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 36.4 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Trevor Lawrence has been among the most on-target QBs in the league since the start of last season with a stellar 66.2% Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 7th-least yards in football (just 204.0 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
277
Passing Yards
277
Passing Yards
