Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 242.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 242.5 (-106) after it opened @ 248.5 (-114).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for quite a few more yards per game (249.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
Opposing QBs have passed for the least yards in the league (just 188.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (67.5%).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.36 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards