Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jaguars vs. Chargers
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 242.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 242.5 (-106) after it opened @ 248.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has passed for quite a few more yards per game (249.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Cons
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in football.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the least yards in the league (just 188.0 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (67.5%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.36 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
