Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (250.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson has been among the least accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a 59.1% Completion%, checking in at the 3rd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards